Archive for the ‘Market News’ Category

Landlords face losing interest-only mortgages

Monday, April 26th, 2010

By Niamh Hennessy

MONDAY, APRIL 26, 2010

LANDLORDS could be facing a financial struggle, with many being told by banks that they will notextend their interest-only mortgage.

The Irish Mortgage Corporation said that there would have been many landlords who would have purchased investment property at the height of the boom and would have taken out interest-only loans on the mortgage. However, as mortgage costs go up and rents stay low many of them are looking to have their interest-only loans extended, but are being told that this is not possible by banks, according to the director of the Irish Mortgage Corporation, Frank Conway.

“We are encountering a growing number of small-time property investors who are facing a growing problem of how they will make the repayments on their property loans as banks refuse to extend their interest-only facilities.

“We could be in for a bloodbath in the small-time landlord sector where many properties were financed through interest-only loan facilities on the expectation that this market was all about capital appreciation and relatively quick exit,” said Mr Conway.

Based on a €300,000interest rate of 2%, the interest-only payments would be €500 per month while payments on capital and interest would be €1,199.07 – an increase of €699.07.

Meanwhile, the Irish Banking Federation has launched a website, www.helpinghomeowners.ie which provides information to borrowers experiencing financial difficulties.

The IBF said it is important that borrowers get in touch with their lenders if they are in difficulty.

In terms of homeowners, most of the banks are now working with homeowners on their main residences, if those homeowners exhibit signs of financial stress, such as mortgage arrears.

However, they will often need to see evidence of arrears before they will agree any modification of the loan. This is in marked contrast to 18 months ago where most were reluctant to negotiate.

This story appeared in the printed version of the Irish Examiner Monday, April 26, 2010

FG TD urges first-time buyers’ grant

Monday, April 26th, 2010

Neil Callanan

Fine Gael TD Tom Sheahan will this week call on members of the party to support the reintroduction of a new form of first-time buyers’ grant for home purchasers.

“I will be recommending the introduction of a mechanism that will make sure that the full dividend of any new grant is passed on to the new home owner or dweller, unlike the old first-time buyers’ grant,” said Sheahan.

“In the past, many developers added the grant dividend on to the price of the house, which defeated the purpose of offering the grant in the first place. An essential element of any new scheme will be the protection of eventual dwellers from exploitative developers,” he said.

“The cost of buying a house has dropped dramatically during the recession, but the banks that were largely responsible for the crisis in the first place, are now reluctant to lend money to potential first-time buyers.”

April 25, 2010

Tribune.ie

McWilliams vs Murgatroyd

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

Why have a two handed economist when you can have two one handed economists? (my jokes deteriorate in quality by the day)

Today there are two very different opinions on the property outlook in Ireland from two very different commentators, first up is David McWilliams who wrote a piece in today’s Independent, where he says the nation is a ‘Bankocracy‘ and that property prices have much further to fall – to the tune of a further 45% according to his figures (saying that current avg. prices are €250k and they should be c. €135k). He implores people to look at the fundamentals of the market and price via yields [disclosure: we support his valuation approach, it was the basis of our investor reports].

McWilliams is probably right, the market is not at the bottom, having said that, there is no metric which can gauge bottoms, even in stock analysis you can use Fibonacci numbers or Bollinger’s to look for trends or turning points, but there is no hard and fast method, the truth lies in the market, and we will be long past the turning point by the time we realise it. The piece in the Indo primarily takes a swipe at the government and the banks, and he ends with a line saying ‘now is the time to buy’ is a line from the sellers, which is actually inaccurate, the time to buy is being determined on the buy side of the transaction, in a market of hardened credit criteria, decreased credit, high unemployment and an uncertain employment future, it simply doesn’t ring true to believe that there are gullible buyers running in with their eyes closed, any transactions are occurring due to a consensus on the buy side, not the other way around.

That is one hand of one economist.

On the other is Paul Murgatroyd who did research on behalf of myhome.ie, his findings say that 58% of first time buyers intend to buy in the coming 12 months. Nearly half of the first time buyers have mortgage approval (48%), almost a third are seeking it (31%), that about four fifths have a deposit (78%) and that 72% of the first time buyers with a deposit saved it (which equates to about 56% of first time buyers).

Of the first time buyers who aren’t going to buy (the other 42% making up 100% when you add them to the 58% that say they will be buying), 37% (15.5% of the 100%) say that falling property prices are the reason, while 43% (18% of 100%) say that current economic outlook is holding them back.

The bulk of first time buyers are looking for a 3 bed semi – we would agree with this, our opinion of ‘non-apartment second hand properties in cities’ as being the only market with any action fits well with those findings. The bulk of whom are looking at houses priced less than €350,000 (71%)

I won’t argue with the interpretation of the data, the sole issue we have is ‘how do you quantify the first time buyers in any market’, is it the people in Ireland above 18yrs old and below 50 (which was the former CIF ‘buyers demographic’) who don’t own a home? Is it the people who identify themselves as first time buyers? And of them, how many answered the questions? How large is the sample pool? How many are not in the sample now that were last year but dropped out due to job loss? The fact is that we’d want to know more before we are convinced, and that is a purely professional critique as opposed to finding any fault with the rest of the research or the researcher in particular.

We have seen a large increase in the number of applications we are receiving, they are not passing through to closings (yet) in any meaningful way, and many people are quite happy to continue renting. There is an advantage in micro-data which Murgatroyd obtained, often it is a lead indicator that will give guidance long before it plays through to the macro picture, for that reason you can’t discount it, having said that, the report reads bullish in our opinion and we don’t feel that there is cause to be bullish in the current market.

The interesting thing is the divergence of views on an identical topic, that of the current Irish property market, ultimately people will believe what they want to believe, but it is important to realise that any argument has inherent flaws in it, and in fact the truth probably lies somewhere in between (now I’m the one with two hands!).

Posted by Karl Deeter in the Irish Mortgage Brokers Blog on 21.04.2010

MyHome.ie: First Time buyers intend to purchase in the next year

Thursday, April 22nd, 2010
  • Two thirds of first time buyers plan to buy in the next 12 months – up7%
  • 78% have funds required to pay a deposit
  • Dublin is still the favored location

Two out of three first time buyers say they intend to buy a property in the next year according to a new survey by leading Irish property website MyHome.ie.

This figure is up from 57% last Autumn while the number who do not intend purchasing has halved from 12.5% to 6.3%.

The majority of first time buyers expect to make the purchase in a 6 to 12 month timeframe while a similar number, 58%, expect house prices to fall slightly in the next twelve months.

Seventy eight per cent of first time buyers now have the funds required to pay a deposit, up 20% from last September.

A similar number, 75% have either received or are seeking mortgage approval, the same percentage as in September 09, suggesting first time buyer activity in the market has held firm over the last six months. Thirty six per cent have received mortgage approval but haven’t purchased a property yet while 39% are actively seeking a mortgage.

Of those who say they won’t be purchasing in the next year 27% said they were waiting for price to fall further, while the same number cited the current economic climate. Sixteen per cent said the lack of mortgage approval meant their plans were on hold.

Angela Keegan, Managing Director of MyHome.ie said the figures showed an encouraging trend as we head into what is traditionally the busiest buying period.

‘The fact that a third of first time buyers have mortgage approval is heartening as is the fact that almost 80% of first time buyers have the funds for a deposit. It is also clear that Dublin will be the first market to see increased activity as 64% of first time buyers wish to buy in the capital. A further 13% are focused on purchasing in the traditional commuter counties of Meath, Wicklow and Kildare’ Keegan said.

Not surprisingly first time buyers are also looking for cheaper property with 5% fewer respondents looking to buy a property between 300K and 350K, 4% more searching in the 200K to 250K. The three bed semi is the property type of choice as apartments continue to remain out of favour.

In his analysis of the results, independent economist Paul Murgatroyd, said first time buyers clearly do not expect market and economic conditions to deteriorate significantly within the next twelve months.

‘There is an expectation that house prices still have slightly further to fall (58% believe they will) but this survey reveals that this is clearly not the most critical factor for them when it comes to purchasing. Sixty four percent say they still intend to purchase in the next 12 months. This supports research which shows that location is a more important criterion than price for the first time buyer’ he said.

Murgatroyd said first time buyers are now the largest proportion of people taking out mortgages for residential property and it is very pleasing to see that over three quarters of respondents have saved money for a deposit, up 4% from last autumn.

‘While some first time buyers have been taking a wait and see approach to the property market over the last six months, most have clearly continued to save during that period, displaying the type of discipline favoured by lenders. This is a very positive development, especially in the current economic climate’ he concluded.

Printed in The Property Week – 21 Apr ‘10

Talking Property

Thursday, April 22nd, 2010

First-time buyers are bypassing apartments for three-bed semis in good locations, says ISABEL MORTON

PROPERTY PRICES may have been slashed in half of late but it’s not all plain sailing for buyers, who are now at the mercy of their lending institutions and must cough up a hefty deposit, prepare for interest rate hikes and subject themselves to FBI-style background checks to ensure they are suitable candidates to be in receipt of one of the banks’ few precious loans. Mortgages are (as my solicitor describes them) as rare as hen’s teeth at the moment.

But, once they have actually managed to navigate their way through the mortgage minefield and have jumped through numerous flaming hoops, licked a few pairs of boots and prostrated themselves before their bankers, property purchasers then find themselves galloping up the home straight.

In the sure knowledge that they can now buy far more bricks for their bucks, first-time buyers are bypassing the first rung of the property ladder and rejecting smart apartments in favour of sensible suburban family homes, similar to those bought by their parents in the 1970s and indeed, their grandparents in the 1950s.

Once synonymous with the Celtic Tiger era and lifestyle, open-plan apartment living has been tried, tested and rejected. And as the first generation to have experienced living within the restrictive confines of many modern Irish apartments, their rejection of them now leaves us under no illusions about their obvious design flaws and failings.

Or perhaps Irish people are just not suited to apartment living or have an inherited obsession with owning their own little house with their own little garden?

Either way, classic well-located three-bed semi-detached houses with gardens, situated close to good transport links, schools, shops and other amenities, are in strong demand and in short supply.

“It’s all about growing their own vegetables and fruit, having space for recycling bins and bicycles, and wanting to revert to open fires rather than the remote control gas ones,” reported one middle-aged estate agent who said that the mood had changed and people wanted to revert to a more simple way of life with less gadgets and more “apple pie”.

Where once they wouldn’t have considered moving into their newly purchased abode until they had fitted, kitted and furnished it to the nth degree with brand new designer goods, people are now furnishing their homes in a more gradual fashion with second-hand items, family cast-offs and auction finds.

Almost overnight, the nation has discarded many of the trappings of the boom times and instead adopted an eco-friendly classic hippie existence.

This change of heart is in part due to the change in attitude by our lending institutions who were once so understanding of our sensibilities that, in addition to our basic mortgage, they kindly provided us all with another tranche of cash to cover the cost of such imperatives as temperature controlled wine cellars, integrated steam ovens and synchronised sound and lighting systems for our landscaped gardens.

Needless to say, banks will no longer finance such vagaries; indeed they’ll no longer even cover the cost of basic renovation work let alone anything else.

The days of proudly presenting your home as a gleaming reflection of your glamorous minimalist lifestyle are over.

Your white marble floors, designer wet rooms, sleek glossy kitchen units and integrated appliances, no longer impress buyers.

According to estate agents, today’s canny buyers are not taken in by lavish furnishings or distracted by smart décor.

They know precisely what everything costs and are only interested in getting maximum value for money and ticking as many of their myriad boxes as possible.

Buyers have gone back to basics. Location is, of course, their number one priority.

The old advice regarding buying the worst house on the best road rather than the best house on the worst road is now more applicable than ever.

Orientation is another big issue and estate agents report that asking prices must reflect the property’s orientation, as regardless of anything else, buyers are not prepared to pay as much for a property with a north-facing back garden.

Proximity to good transport links also rates high on buyers’ lists and prior to even viewing a property, they will have timed how long it takes to travel to and from work at peak rush hour and will have checked out local amenities.

If the property for sale ticks the above-mentioned boxes, then anything else is considered a bonus as far as today’s buyers are concerned. But, they are not prepared to pay for anything they now consider as unnecessary extras.

So, your expensive architect-designed glass box kitchen extension may well end up being replaced with a cosy farmhouse affair, more suited to housing numerous recycling bins, an eco-friendly range cooker and Wellington boots (your smart box hedging having been dug up and replaced with rows of vegetables).

Printed in The Irish Times on 22.04.10

Galway rents stabilise in first quarter of 2010

Wednesday, April 21st, 2010

Rents for some sectors of the Galway commercial property market stabilised during the first quarter of the year after having earlier fallen sharply from their 2008 peaks.

In all sectors of the city and suburbs rents for larger industrial units at €54 per sqm have been unchanged over the six months to March 2010 while the purchase price for similar units are also unchanged at €1,291 per sqm.

These are among the latest findings in the DTZ Sherry FitzGerald (DTZSF) survey of the Galway market for the first quarter of this year.

Smaller units in the east of the city are also recording unchanged rents at €65 per sqm although the purchase price for these units fell by about 17pc to around €1,615 per sqm over the six months.

On the west of the city, smaller industrial units have seen rents fall by about 16pc to €54 per sqm and prices by about 20pc to around €1,291 per sqm over the six months.

Rents for third generation offices in the city centre suffered the sharpest fall since the market peak in 2008 — down 39pc and now range between €161-€194 per sqm. Similar suburban offices saw rents fall only 20pc to a lower €129 per sqm.

DTZSF comments that enquiry levels continued to increase during Q1, as occupiers began to re-emerge in response to the good value in the market.

“As the gap between rents in the city centre and suburbs continues to narrow, city centre offices are becoming more affordable. There is emerging evidence that this is impacting demand as almost 70pc of the offices occupied during Q1 were in the city centre. Despite the large volume of available space signs of stabilisation in terms of rents emerged. However, rents are also being backed up by increasingly attractive incentives as competition between landlords intensifies,” says DTZ SF economist Marian Finnegan.

Take-up of office space fell to only 650sqm during the quarter and availability, at 48,000 sqm, accounts for 16.7pc of stock. Nevertheless this is a healthier vacancy level than the 20pc plus levels in DublinCork and Limerick.

The level of supply in the office market rose steadily throughout 2009, however, as the year progressed the rate of increase diminished considerable from a quarterly high of 46pc in quarter one 2009 to an increase of 5pc during the final quarter of the year.

This trend continued in the opening quarter of 2010 with a 2pc increase recorded in the level of available space.

Ms Finnegan pointed out that the improved supply has increased availability to a very high level.

“The increase in supply during the quarter was driven by the continued release of second hand space to the market and reflects a 28pc increase in the quantum of available offices compared to the same period in 2009,” she adds.

Printed in the Irish Independent  on 21.04.10

The art of buying at the market bottom

Friday, April 16th, 2010

THE upcoming auction by Real Estate Alliance of 72 properties ranging from a riverside mill with valuable hydro-power rights attaching, through commercial, retail, industrial and agricultural properties to residential homes should reveal a lot where prices are concerned. All come with published AMVs and it will be interesting to see what the final knockdown prices are in relation to these.

According to Daft.ie, the speed of the housing market crash is losing pace, but it is doubtful whether prices have yet bottomed out, despite Brian Lenihan’s predictions.

However, economists are warning that people thinking of buying a house who are holding back, waiting for prices to finish falling, could be taking a risk. Some mortgage experts have calculated that another 10pc fall in house prices would be wiped out by rising mortgage rates.

Buyers of new-build homes are at a distinct advantage when planning their finances. They know what they can afford. They know the price of the property they want to buy. So they know the size of the mortgage they need to apply for. Everything is straightforward.

Purchasers of second-hand homes, on the other hand, can find themselves seriously wrong-footed as they try to guess at the selling price of a house — particularly if they have nothing to judge it against. If a house up the road sold for €580,000 a month ago the chances are that, barring a bidding war, the house they are interested in will sell for in and around that price. But if there is nothing to go by they are dependent to a great extent on the honesty of the selling agent. It becomes a credibility issue.

The credibility problem arises partly because so many properties were slow to sell over the winter and some have come back on the market with further price cuts. So bidders find it difficult to believe that anyone else would bid for the particular property that interests them. In addition, there are well-financed buyers who read reports that banks are not lending money and so these buyers are puzzled that anyone can afford to bid against them.

In this market, timing is more important than ever. If a three-bedroom or four bedroom house in the €400,000 to €700,000 price range is in good condition in an area which has had a strong track record then there’s a good chance that it won’t stay on the market for long. Consequently a buyer who really wants a particular property in this sector of the market may well lose out if they plan to test an agent’s patience.

One agent recounts how such incredulity was reflected in the approach of a buyer. “I told the prospective buyer that there was already a bid of €600,000 on a south Dublin semi but he didn’t believe me.

In fact, the buyer insisted on making a first offer of €590,000 and arguing: “Even if you have a higher bid I’m a better buyer as I have the finance in place.”

And another buyer recently posed this question: “How can I believe the agent when he says he has a bid of €510,000 for the house for which he was originally asking €540,000?”

Yet another buyer said: “I tried to cut out the other bidder by bidding €10,000 more than him and now the agent says the other person has bid €5,000 more than me. Can I believe the agent?”

The Construction Industry Federation has called for the establishment of a national register of house prices.

Since the Permanent TSB/ESRI house price index will no longer be published monthly, due to a lack of sufficient mortgage information, there is a sense of unease amongst the purchasing public. The price index was viewed as a trusted barometer of the housing market.

Official figures record that average prices have fallen 31.5pc since the peak of the housing market, but anecdotal evidence can put that figure at nearer to 50pc.

On the otherhand last month more than 900 bargain hunters queued up to view apartments at Tailteann Court, Mullingar, Co Westmeath, where 48 units were snapped up and the agent has a waiting list of 157 buyers for any sales that fall through or for the 15 units when they come to market. The attraction, of course, was the price. One-bed units were priced from €70,000, two beds from €82,450 and three beds from €98,000.

National Irish Bank appointed John McStay as receiver to the 63-unit development after the developer hadn’t sold a single unit. It had been expected to fetch up to €202,000 form some units.

It is quite likely that this scenario will be repeated across the country over the coming year.

- Valerie McGrath

Printed in the Irish Independent 16.04.10

Luxury homes for €99,950 as receiver orders fire-sale

Friday, April 16th, 2010

DOZENS of luxury homes are going back on the market at fire-sale prices after a receiver took over a half-completed estate.

Selling prices for large three-bedroom semi-detached houses in the upmarket Battery Court development in Longfordtown are now being sold for less than half their asking price during the height of the property boom.

Three-bedroom semi-detached houses that started at €250,000 will now range between a modest €99,950 and €117,950 when they go back on the market on April 24 and 25.

Four-bedroom detached homes that once commanded a minimum asking price of €385,000 will also be up for grabs for between €205,000 and €219,000. In all, 47 properties ranging in size from 1,000 to 2,055 sq ft set on large private gardens have been resurrected after the half-completed estate became a virtual ghost town when developers Grealy Group went into meltdown during the property collapse.

The development went into receivership six months ago. However, receiver Ray McDwyer has since seen to it that the unfinished properties have been completed and put back on the market.

Auctioneer Don Crotty, of Crotty Auctioneers in Cavan, said: “Under instructions from the receiver Ray McDwyer, Crotty Auctioneers took over the development and spent the last seven months cleaning up the site and carrying out repairs and maintenance to the existing structures.”

Mr Crotty said selling off unfinished estates at bargain prices “is the way forward”.

He added: “People have to have homes to live in and it is three years since houses were bought in this country.

“Half-finished developments do nothing for towns and I would say that we have reached the bottom of the market now.”

The sale comes less than a month after apartments at Tailteann Court in Mullingar, Co Westmeath, went on sale last month starting at €69,950.

The developer had built 63 apartments but sold none beforeNational Irish Bank appointed receiver John McStay on foot of debts of €7.8m.

Prices started at €69,950 for one-bedroom apartments, €82,450 for two-bedroom units and €98,000 for three-bed units — or approximately half of what they were at the peak of the boom.

Printed in The Irish Independent 15.04.10

Call for data on housing stock

Thursday, April 15th, 2010

More precise figures for vacant housing stock outside the Greater Dublin Area are needed to get the planning process back on track, the Royal Institute of the Architects of Ireland (RIAI) said yesterday.

Although a number of reports have been published containing figures for the level of empty property around the country, the figures have a disparity of between 17 per cent and 47 per cent. The studies have been carried out by organisations including NUI Maynooth, Goodbody and UCD.

There are believed to be between 352,414 and 301,682 vacant houses in Ireland. Estimates for holiday homes range between 49,789 and 73,476.

Printed in the 15.04.10

Fingal draft plan launched with loads of bullish talk

Thursday, April 15th, 2010

WE MIGHT be deep in recession but Fingal County Council isn’t letting that stop it bandying about words like “upturn” and “success” and “positive growth”.

In a smorgasbord of optimism worthy of the height of the boom days, the Draft Fingal Development Plan 2011-2017 was launched at a conference organised by Keith Simpson and Associates with a bullish title – Fingal: delivering success for the Dublin region.

The conference looked at the role of strategic planning and economic and market stimulus in achieving current and future success.

Themes included: how can we capture the potential of the Dublin region and convert that to tangible benefits for the place and community?; and capturing success – the key role of promoting innovation and enterprise as fundamental to future growth.

Speakers included the Minister for Education and Skills Mary Coughlan, who gave the opening address, and Dr William Hynes, director of strategic planning at Keith Simpson and Associates, and IAVI president Aine Myler who spoke on the “need for a new approach”.

There was a talk by Austin Hughes, the chief economist with KBC bank, on setting the economic scene while Tom Parlon, director general of the CIF, spoke about “overcoming challenges to deliver”.

Strange, perhaps, that the Minister for Education and Skills was launching a draft development plan and not the Minister for the Environment John Gormley?

Printed in The Irish Times 15.04.10